It also makes sense to at least some of those who worry about Japan's very low
fertility rate. The population is just starting to fall and the nation will
face huge problems as the number of people in the workforce will drop
dramatically in the not-too-distant future. If the present fertility rate
continues, the Japanese population, now 128 million, will fall below 100
million by 2050, to 40 million in a century. At this rate, the nation would be
extinct by the end of the 22nd century.
Thus anything which causes women to give birth rather than abort is regarded as
welcome.
There are lots of explanations as to why Japan's fertility rate has fallen so
low. Now around 1.3, it has been below replacement level since the mid 1970s.
The reasons include inadequate government payments for child support, lack of
nursery schools, low levels of female employment, long commutes and working
hours for employees, cramped living conditions, costly housing, and even
falling sperm counts.
But if Japan has a problem, what about the rest of East Asia? The lowest
fertility rates are found in Hong Kong (0.9) South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore,
all below even the lowest in Europe. Singapore and Hong Kong may be small
enough to compensate by importing mainland Chinese and Southeast Asians. But
what is South Korea going to do? Its birthrate is also below replacement,
unless it can take over the North where (if you can believe the statistics) the
fertility rate is 2.1.
The mainland is not much better at 1.7 - down from 5.8 in 1970. Even if the One
Child policy ends, rapid urbanization suggests that China's fertility rate will
fall further. Rates in big cities like Shanghai are already down to the Hong
Kong level. Worse still, there is now a 10 percent surplus of boys at the young
ages, suggesting a future of either war, hoodlums, gay marriage or polyandry.
Imagine -- today's Communist party chiefs with their multiple mistresses could
be replaced by sexually active females with male harems!
Asian countries continue to delude themselves that their family values are
superior to the west and that will ensure the survival of families, marriage
and the tradition of family care of the older generation. The evidence from
Japan and now from Hong Kong and Singapore is that care for parents is also a
waning tradition.
East Asia faces even bigger demographic problems than Europe, if only because
the transition from high to very low birth rates has been so sudden. Nor is the
issue confined to industrialized East Asia. Thailand's birth rate is also now
below replacement levels and the percentage of old people will start to rise
rapidly within 20 years. Vietnam's change to low fertility came late but, like
China's, has been very sudden.
So how are these societies going to react? Are they condemned to rapid aging
and eventual falls in population? Or will some combination of natural processes
and official policy cause a reversal?
For clues they need to look at what has happened in the west, once seen as
individualistic rather than family-oriented, In the US, the overall fertility
rate is close to replacement level, but only because of the high rates shown by
recently arrived groups, like Hispanics at 2.9. Longer-established groups,
whatever their ethnicity, have rates akin to European averages.
But Europe itself shows puzzling variations which can be hard to explain but
give some clues. The lowest rates are in Catholic southern Europe, once
regarded as church and family oriented. Meanwhile the highest rates are found
in northern Europe - Sweden, Norway, France, and the Netherlands. These at
1.8-1.9 are now close to replacement levels.
They also have three characteristics that are absent in much of east Asia.
High levels of government support for children, generous maternal and paternal
leave, provision of nursery schools and crèches.
Very high levels of female workforce participation - like Singapore and Hong
Kong but unlike Korea and Japan
A high level of births outside wedlock - even though abortion is readily
available.
This all suggests that most women still want babies provided they can make the
decisions and do not have to rely on men to do more than provide the seed.
Fertility is an ever-varying and quite unpredictable factor in social
evolution. But whether it is baby hatches, unmarried mothers, new forms of
extended family, polyandry or euthanasia, demographic and economic change is
creating new and surprising developments in society. Do not be shocked. Search
for the reason.
Copyright 2007
Asia Sentinel, reprinted with permission.
