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Gender crisis not an accurate prediction
By Guo Zi
August 1, 2004
In their controversial new MIT Press book "Bare Branches: The Security
Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population," Valerie Hudson and Andrea den
Boer assert that historically high male-to-female ratios can trigger violence.
The authors then argue that the disproportionate number of low-status young
adult males in some Asian countries, particularly China and India, threatens
domestic stability and international security.
Though not convincing in many senses, it is still a very interesting view and
urges us to take immediate action to tackle the problem of disproportion in
gender.
Culturally and economically, male descendants are much more desired in China,
especially in the vast countryside where field labour needs more men than
women.
As the country adopted the family planning policy in the late 1970s, most
couples were only permitted to have one child. The old concept of having a son
to carry on the family line motivated people to resort to fetal sex-selection
to ensure that the only child is a son.
Illegal sex screening and sex selective abortion have been rampant since the
late 1980s, which has pushed the newborn girl/boy ratio rising from 100:108 in
1982 to 100:117 in 2000, whereas the normal proportion should be 100:104-107.
Family planning authorities have warned that if the problem is not promptly
addressed, the country will be caught between a surplus of young men over the
number of young women by tens of millions in addition to an increasingly aging
population in the coming two decades.
Ms Hudson and Ms den Boer, however, had further concerns as to international
security issues. History, biology, and sociology all suggest that these
"surplus males" will generate high levels of crime and social disorder, the
authors say. Even worse, they continue, is the possibility that the governments
of India and China will build up huge armies in order to provide a safety valve
for young men's aggressive energies.
But such forecasts rest too heavily on so few isolated historical cases, and
the authors have failed to establish a systematic correlation between sex
ratios and violence. Critics also think that they do not offer detailed
knowledge of Asian societies and political systems.
Disproportion in gender is indeed a serious problem, but to treat it as a
threat to international security is an unwarranted distraction.
The assumption that some 30 million Chinese men will not be able to find a wife
merely rests on the current highest boy/girl birth ratio. In real life, as
people may not look for their mates in such a restricted age level, the
situation may not be so grave.
Also, the case cited in the book about China's nian jun, the uprising army in
late 19th century, shows the author's limited knowledge about Chinese history.
The nian jun revolted against the decaying regime of the Qing Dynasty
(1644-1911), but the reason given in the book was that unmarried males resorted
to violence.
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