The report, the latest edition of PRB's annual "World Population Data Sheet",
finds the continuing increase in the global population is due in part to the
"stalling" of some countries in their anticipated transition from high to low
fertility.
Thus, the fertility rates in some countries, such as the Dominican Republic,
Ghana, Kenya and Turkey, where substantial progress had been made in reducing
the average number of children born to each woman since the 1980s, have
flattened out in recent years.
Citing research by demographer John Bongaarts of the Population Council, the
latest report found that the failure of anticipated declines to materialise may
have been due to a number of factors, including setbacks in socioeconomic
development and unmet demand for contraception.
Meanwhile, fertility in some of the world's poorest countries -- almost all of
them in Africa -- has remained virtually unchanged over the past 25 years.
Niger, where famine caused by drought and last year's locust infestation now
threatens some three million people with starvation, has the highest fertility
rate at an average of eight lifetime births per woman; followed by Mali,
another drought-stricken nation, and Guinea-Bissau, at 7.1 births per woman;
Somalia, 7.0; Uganda, 6.9, and Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, and Liberia, all
at 6.8 births per woman.
By contrast, the lowest fertility rates -- far below the 2.1 children per woman
considered to be "replacement level" in developed countries -- are now found in
Central and Eastern Europe and East Asia.
With a rate of a mere 1.2 births per woman, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech
Republic, Moldova, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Ukraine
will almost certainly see declines in their populations over the coming
decades.
The new Data Sheet, which includes the latest statistics on a range of health,
income, and population indices, in addition to fertility, for 207 countries and
territories, estimates the global population as of mid-2005 at 6.477 billion,
of which 5.266 billion people live in developing countries. China, with 1.304
billion people, is the world's most populous nation.
By 2050, however, China, whose tough population policies have helped reduce its
fertility rate to Western European levels of 1.6 children per woman, will have
been overtaken by India, where the fertility rate is 3.0 (the overall average
for all developing countries). India will have 1.628 billion people by that
date, while China is expected to have 1.437 billion, according to the report.
The United States is also expected to hold its place as the third most-populous
country with 420 million people, compared with its current 296 million, while
Indonesia, the fourth largest country today with 222 million people, will also
hold its position with 308 million 45 years from now.
The standings of the next six-largest countries, however, are expected to
change, as Pakistan, which currently ranks number six with 162 million people,
is expected to nearly double its population and overtake Brazil (currently 184
million) as number five.
Nigeria, which currently ranks ninth with 132 million people, is also expected
to nearly double its population over that period, moving it into seventh place
right behind Brazil and displacing Bangladesh, whose population is expected to
grow from 144 million to 231 million.
In addition, Russia and Japan, which currently rank eight and 10 with 143
million and 120 million people, respectively, will be eliminated from the top
10 list altogether and replaced by two of Africa's poorest nations -- the
Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia with anticipated populations of 183
million and 170 million, respectively.
Japan's current fertility rate is 1.3 births per woman; Russia's is 1.4 births
per woman, according to the Data Sheet. As a result, both countries'
populations are predicted to fall sharply -- Russia's from 143 million today to
just over 110 million; Japan's from 128 million today to just over 100 million
in 2050.
Other countries that are expected to have populations greater than 100 million
in 2050 include the Philippines (142 million) Mexico (139 million); Uganda (131
million); Egypt (126 million); Vietnam (115 million); and Turkey (101 million).
Overall, developed-country populations are expected to grow a total of only
about three percent between 2005 and 2050 -- from 1.211 billion to 1.249
billion -- with the United States and Canada contributing virtually all of that
increase. Overall, Europe is expected to lose 10 percent of its population,
with the greatest losses found in Eastern and Southern Europe.
By contrast, developing countries, excluding China, are expected to increase
their total population from 3.963 billion today to 6.576 billion by 2050 -- an
increase of 66 percent based in part on an average projected fertility rate of
3.5 births per woman.
Sub-Saharan Africa's population will increase the most -- from 752 million
people today to 1.729 billion by 2050 -- or 130 percent. Sub-regionally,
Central Africa is expected to experience the fastest growth (increasing by 175
percent), while southern Africa's population will remain stagnant over the
period due in major part to HIV/AIDS pandemic which has reduced life expectancy
in several southern African countries to less than 40 years -- the world's
lowest.
The population of Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to increase by 44
percent, from a current population of 559 million to 805 million, over the same
period. Haiti, the region's poorest country, however, is expected to grow at a
much faster rate -- from 8.3 million today to 18.8 million in 2050.
Excluding China, Asia's population is expected to grow by nearly 50 percent to
nearly four billion, with its western subregion, which includes most of the
Middle East and Turkey, leading the way with an expected population increase of
nearly 90 percent, or from 214 million to 400 million.
Inter Press Service
